Development of an Earthquake Loss Model for Iran
Background
Development of an earthquake model for the Islamic Republic of Iran for the purposes of developing insurance policies. In this project several local reports and databases were collected, and used to develop a new exposure model for the residential, commercial and industrial building stock. After the identification of the most common types of construction, vulnerability and fragility functions were developed. The seismic hazard component was calculated using the recently released Earthquake Model for the Middle East (EMME). To this end, 100,000 years of events were generated, and used to calculate probabilistic seismic risk (e.g. average annual losses, probable maximum losses and aggregated loss exceedance curves).
Objective
To develop an Earthquake Loss Model for Iran
Results
The activities assigned to the risk team consisted in the development and calibration of the exposure and vulnerability datasets. The exposure was compared with several sources of local information, and a local consultant was hired to verify the replacement costs for each building class. The spatial resolution of the exposure information was improved using satellite imagery, population datasets and the location of local roads. The fragility functions were developed by testing sets of numerical models against ground motion records through nonlinear dynamic analysis. The resulting vulnerability functions were verified using loss data from six past events.
Scope
Iran
Year
2016
Status
Completed
Funding partner
Aon Benfield
Photos
